With the World Cup a month away, a lot of people have been asking my thoughts on how I think it will pan out, especially regarding how the US team will fair. So here goes, my comprehensive outlook on the 2006 World Cup.The U.S. National Team:
When I first saw the group that the US was drawn in, I was a bit worried. Italy, the Czech Republic and Ghana. Yikes. That's one of the most difficult groups in the tournament. Let's look at the competition:
Italy:
The US played Italy only once recently, and that was back in 2002 where they were beaten 1-0. Not bad, but methinks that is a flattering result. Italy are currently ranked 14th in the FIFA Rankings, with the U.S. a full 10 places higher in 4th. But don't let that fool you for a second, those rankings don't mean much. Italy lost only 1 game in the final round of 10 qualifying matches, and that was to Slovenia. Sure they had a pretty weak group, but they topped it by 5 points. They're inconsistent at times, and have some HUGE egos to contend with, especially up front. They recently beat Germany 4-1 but could only muster a 1-1 draw against the Ivory Coast. The U.S. could beat them on the right day, but they'll need to have a solid back line and put away the few chances they'll get.
Czech Republic:
The USMNT has really struggled against Eastern European teams in the past - actually, that's not entirely accurate - the only Eastern European team they've played in recent years is Poland - having played them 4 times in the last 5 years. The results have been mixed at best - they were spanked 3-1 by Poland in the 2002 World Cup, and there have been a series of 1-0 wins for either team since then, the most recent being a 1-0 win for the U.S. in blizzard conditions in Germany. They had a tough time qualifying, coming second best to Holland in their group. They eventually beat Norway 2-0 in a playoff. The Czechs scored more goals than any other European team in qualifying. Yikes. Oh and they're also ranked number 2 in the world. I am much more concerned about the Czech Republic than I am about Italy.
Ghana:
One of the things that the US has not done well is find a variety of competition - we play the same teams over and over and that has hurt us in the past. Interestingly, we've played quite a few African teams in the last 5 years, including South Africa (W), Tunisia (D), Cameroon (D), and a game in two weeks against Morocco. This is Ghana's first World Cup, so they're expectations will be low which can make them dangerous. That said, the U.S. really should beat Ghana.
Conclusion:
To advance to the second round, the U.S. is going to have to beat either Italy or the Czech Republic. If that doesn't happen, they're going to have to hope for favorable results in the other games. I've said it before and I'll say it again, the US team can beat anyone on the right day. They're going to have come out very agressively and pull off a good result against the Czechs like they did against Portugal in the 2002 World Cup.
The Squad:
Let's look at who Bruce Arena elected to bring to Germany:
Albright, Chris
Beasley, DaMarcus
Bocanegra, Carlos
Cherundolo, Steve
Ching, Brian
Conrad, Jimmy
Convey, Bobby
Dempsey, Clint
Donovan, Landon
Gibbs, Cory
Hahnemann, Marcus
Howard, Tim
Johnson, Eddie
Keller, Kasey
Lewis, Eddie
Mastroeni, Pablo
McBride, Brian
O'Brien, John
Olsen, Ben
Onyewu, Oguchi
Pope, Eddie
Reyna, Claudio
Wolff, Josh
Any surprises? Absolutely. But good ones. I was very pleased to see Briang Ching and Jimmy Conrad included in the squad. They were chosen instead of Taylor Twellman and Gregg Berhalter. I was surpised about Berhalter, not so much about Twellman - poor guy just hasn't gotten it done at the National Team level. Why was Ching brought along? Couple of reasons: firstly, his height - he's a good stand in for McBride should McHead be injured or need a break. He's also dynamite in the air which is going to be a huge advantage, especially on set pieces. Secondly, he's been putting the ball in the back of the net for his club week and week out in the MLS this season. As for COnrad - I've always been a fan of Jimmy, and I just hope his lack of experience at this level doesn't undo his efforts when it comes to crunch time.
So who would be my starting eleven?
